There Will Be No Insurgency in Ukraine

A bad peace in better than a good war. So for the sake of Ukraine, I hope its citizens do not take up arms to fight an insurgency against the Russian military. The Russians are not the Americans, they will use brute force in ways the Americans never used in Iraq or Afghanistan. Their one rule of engagement will be: kill anyone who remotely might be an insurgent.

But also, Ukrainians are not Iraqis or Afghans. They are Europeans. They are not going to be willing to die to defeat an infidel enemy. There was no insurgency against the Nazis anywhere in occupied Western Europe. When did most Frenchmen join La Resistance? 1945. There were insurgencies only in Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, where the Nazis were killing so many people that insurgency was a last ditch effort at survival.

I hate to say this, but Ukraine is doomed to lose. I admire their resistance against Russian aggression. But an early surrender would be better than brave but senseless armed resistance. And unfortunately, I foresee a long occupation, unless Kiev can convince Moscow to accept major concessions and Putin decides to cash in his chips and bring his troops home. That would be Zelensky’s best course of action in this grim moment.