Putin's Easy Victory

There is a factor in the Ukraine crisis that nobody in America is aware of. The Ukrainian army might well collapse as fast as the Afghan army did last summer, if not quicker.

The average Ukrainian soldier gets about 400 USD a month in salary. Their equipment is often substandard, and their officers are corrupt. In fact, the entire Ukrainian government is riddled with corruption and incompetence. And they are facing a military that Vladimir Putin has spent two decades rebuilding and modernizing after the disasterous wars in Chechnya.

I certainly hope there is no war. And I would hope patriotism alone will motivate the Ukrainians to stand their ground. But I am not optimistic.

And sanctions will not deter Putin. He would laugh at the idea that he’d be influenced by measures like denying him a visa to the US.

It is funny to watch Americans on cable news. Democrats are now war hawks, ready to defend Kiev, solely because Donald Trump likes Putin. And Republicans are on Putin’s side, simply because Biden is (nominally) on Kiev’s side. It’s all pathetic and silly.

I still predict there will be no war, but it all really comes down to Putin’s decision to invade or not invade. But if the Russians do go in, I predict they will be in Kiev in a few days.