I Am Not Optimistic

Again, a caveat, I have no inside information about events on the ground in Ukraine.

But the Western media is focused on stories about courageous babashkas preparing Molotov cocktails and learning how to shoot AK-47s. Kharkiv and Kyiv remain in Ukrainian hands. The ruble has dropped dramatically (by the way, now is the time to buy Sberbank and Gazprom). Surely, Ukraine will prevail.

I may be wrong, and I hope I am wrong. But it seems to me that the Russian military will want to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv before Ukraine can get more anti-tank missiles to the front lines. So it seems to me a massive assault on both cities in imminent. And Ukrainain forces in the southeast seem vulnerable to encirclement. Odessa is also endangered. Very soon Russia, could effectively occupy half the country.

Sanctions will hit Russia, and hard. But so far, a recent poll in Russia reports that 68% of Russians support Putin. If firebombing cities failed to break German morale in WWII, I am not sure 20% higher prices for imported cheese will lead to a popular revolution against the Putin regime.

I do wish the Ukrainians success in repelling this naked aggression. I’ve even considered going myself to fight. But I believe in trying to understand how events are unfolding, rather than simple-mided slogans and cheerleading. Maybe this war is not over, maybe Ukraine can prevail against the odds. I am just not sure this is really the case.